Wednesday, April 16, 2014

KSS Sale

As discussed in an earlier post, I planned to sell my position in KSS - decent return, but the story is no longer exciting...not undervalued, and declining eps.  I sold all shares today at $55.  I'll use the cash to bolster other holdings in the portfolio when I see opportunity.



Friday, April 4, 2014

Everyone Uses Tupperware

Chuck wrote up a nice analysis of TUP today on Seeking Alpha, here is the link:

Not much for me to add.  Looks like a decent investment at today's price (around $83 or less), not a great value buy, but close to fair value.  In today's market its difficult to find stocks trading even at fair value, especially if they are high quality.  As I mentioned previously, I'm planning to close my KSS position.  I'll consider TUP my swap - I'll be getting a better brand with less competition, more growth potential in emerging markets, and higher yield.  Tupperware is not subject to fashion trends, aging stores, and fickle consumer tastes.  Their products are vital for keeping storing food - a worldwide market with lots of growth potential.  Further, I much prefer to own companies with rising earnings vs. falling earnings.

Here is a one year price chart:

The price took a little tumble after their last earnings report, and has been climbing since.  They report earnings again on April 23.  I'm going to attempt to start a 1/4 size position today with a limit order.  If earnings disappoint, I'll add on additional weakness.  If not, I'll just let it ride.



Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Altria (MO)

MO in the news today:

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) (Altria) (NYSE:MO) today announced that its subsidiary, Nu Mark LLC (Nu Mark), has completed the acquisition of the e-vapor business of Green Smoke, Inc. and its affiliates. The transaction is valued at approximately $110 million in cash and up to $20 million in incentive payments.
Additional information regarding the transaction is available
Altrias Profile
Altria directly or indirectly owns 100% of each of Philip Morris USA Inc., U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLCJohn Middleton Co., Nu Mark, Ste. Michelle Wine Estates Ltd. (Ste. Michelle) and Philip Morris Capital Corporation. Altria holds a continuing economic and voting interest in SABMiller plc.
The brand portfolios of Altrias tobacco operating companies include Marlboro®, Black & Mild®, Copenhagen®, Skoal® and MarkTen". Ste. Michelle produces and markets premium wines sold under various labels, including Chateau Ste. Michelle®, Columbia Crest®, 14 Hands® and StagsLeap Wine Cellars®, and it imports and markets Antinori®, Champagne Nicolas Feuillatte" and Villa Maria Estate" products in the United States. Trademarks and service marks related to Altria referenced in this release are the property of Altria or its subsidiaries or are used with permission. More information about Altria is available at
Altria was one of the first individual stocks in the portfolio, dating back to September, 2010.  My average cost is $24 and change, and today's close was $37 and change.  MO pays a very nice dividend, and has an amazing portfolio of U.S. brands, as mentioned above.  Here is a FASTGraph of MO today:

A nice steady grower, large dividend, diverse brands, very shareholder friendly.  I'll continue to hold and let the position grow.  In fact, I added MO's brother PM earlier this year on some weakness to get some international exposure.  I consider both to be good core dividend growth stocks until the lawyers put tobacco companies out of business....

1st Quarter Performance, 2014

The stock market has had a slow start to 2014.  Here are the various index performance numbers for the 1st quarter of this year:

The Chump IRA is beating the S&P, the benchmark I follow most closely, with a 1st quarter performance of 2.54%.  Not a huge difference, but over years, a few % better than the S&P will add up nicely.  Further, we've yet to see a real extended downturn.  I believe the Chump IRA, with so many high quality companies, will fare much better in a downturn than the broader indices.  We shall see!



Monday, March 31, 2014

Kohl's (KSS)

Remember my post from November 4, 2013 about a Kohl's upgrade?  Of course you don't ;-).  Anyway, I stated then that analysts had upgraded Kohl's from neutral to buy, and an historic peak in the stock price.  Luckily, I added KSS to the Chump IRA almost a full year earlier when analysts were panning the stock.  I then enjoyed a gain of over 34% to the analyst upgrades in November of last year.

So, how is Kohl's doing since the big upgrade?  Here is a price chart:

The stock dropped after the upgrade in November, and has fought back to similar levels recently.  With recent upticks, a few more analysts have upgraded the stock, of course, after the upticks.  

I think its time to sell.  KSS has had two consecutive years of declining earnings, despite aggressive stock buy backs.  There margins are declining, they just fired their head of merchandising, and stores are in need of renovation.  KSS was a simple value play for me, and the value is gone with the declining eps.  I've been patient, but I don't trust their forecast of a big increase in eps next year.  I'm going to sell the position over the next several weeks.



Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Wells Fargo & JP Morgan Dividends

Good news today for my WFC and JPM holdings as a result of successful stress test results:

JPM is also authorizing a massive share repurchase of $6.5 is the article on SA:


Thursday, March 13, 2014

Starting a Position in Toyota (TM)

I placed a limit order for a 1/3 position in TM today....$110.55.  More to come.


Toyota caught my eye last week for a few reasons.  1)  The stock is beaten up pretty good price-wise:

2)  It looks nicely undervalued per FASTGraphs:

Earnings are healthy and rising for the worlds #1 automaker (sorry friends & family at Ford).  And they pay a dividend, though the 4.9% shown here is an error.  They pay semi-annually, so it's actually 1/2 the yield listed, or around 2.4%.

3)  Sticking with the undervalue theme, the PE is at historic lows:

In summary, great company, undervalued, pays a growing dividend, #1 in it's industry.  Good entry point.